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News » If Saints keep marching, Cowboys benefit In this BCS formula, Dallas needs some help to reach playoffs


If Saints keep marching, Cowboys benefit In this BCS formula, Dallas needs some help to reach playoffs


If Saints keep marching, Cowboys benefit In this BCS formula, Dallas needs some help to reach playoffs
The New Orleans Saints' return home to the Superdome on Monday, and their explosive victory over the Packers may be the best thing that has happened to the Cowboys since Tony Romo returned.


Don't get it?

Please follow the atypically sound logic of today's column.

The Cowboys aren't really competing for one of six playoff spots in the NFC. They are one of six teams trying to capture the last three spots available.

The Giants, Arizona and the winner of the NFC North are in. It says here that the rest of the West, the rest of the North and the Eagles (that's seven teams) are out.

Dallas' competition is Washington and, in a strange and unanticipated twist, the entire NFC South.

And the cold, calculating numbers of my personal BCS (Beloved Cowlishaw System) say the Cowboys are not likely to reach the playoffs.

In this system, you examine each team's schedule. A team wins at home if it is within two wins of the opponent in the standings. In other words, a 6-5 team at home beats an 8-3 team but loses to a 9-2 team. A team wins on the road only if it is more than two wins ahead of the home team.

The Cowboys' remaining opponents are 32-22-1. Of these six teams, only Carolina (35-20) has a tougher road to travel. And after playing 2-9 Seattle on Thursday, the Cowboys are going against teams that are 30-13-1.

In this BCS, Tampa Bay and Carolina finish 11-5, Washington and Atlanta go 10-6 and Dallas and New Orleans come in at 9-7. Tampa Bay wins the South and Carolina and Washington get the wild cards.

This system has Dallas beating Seattle and Baltimore at home but losing to the Giants in Texas Stadium and to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia on the road.

Obviously, in the real world there are variables to consider. The Eagles, having benched Donovan McNabb last week only to bring him back this week, could be in tatters by the time Dallas gets there on Dec. 28. Then again, even a 6-8-1 Eagles team would love to finish its season by eliminating the Cowboys from the postseason.

The Cowboys' 7-4 record is partly a product of their 1-2 mark without Romo. Clearly with him and some of the other players who have returned from injury, they are a more dynamic team than they were a month ago.

What hurts the Cowboys is a 5-4 NFC record that is going to penalize them come tiebreaker time.

That brings us back to the Saints.

New Orleans is, I believe, far better than its 6-5 record suggests. There is someone in the league office who loves to torture the Saints. Whether it's being forced to play a home game against the Giants in New Jersey after a devastating hurricane or playing a home game in London against San Diego, the Saints always get the worst of schedules.

Monday night was the first time the Saints played in the Superdome since Oct. 12. That's crazy. No other team has to put up with that nonsense. They played at Carolina, a "home" game in London and had a bye and two more road games before Monday night.

But the Saints looked awfully strong against Green Bay. And they play all three of the Cowboys' new South Division rivals in the final five weeks.

A hot Saints team (but not too hot, they need to lose maybe at Chicago) would help pin some losses on the teams Dallas is trying to hold off for a wild-card spot. And the Saints' terrible record within the NFC (3-4) makes them the team you want to be tied with when tiebreakers are applied.

The other good news for the Cowboys is that other than Tampa Bay, they are the only team out of these six with three home games to play. The bad news is that one of those games is against the Giants, who look like they are beating everyone from here on out.

So while Drew Brees pursues history in the form of the all-time season passing yards mark, maybe the Saints can show that they really are better than a 6-5 team.

That would go a long way toward putting the Cowboys into a postseason that last summer they seemed so assured of being a participant.



Author:Fox Sports
Author's Website:http://www.foxsports.com
Added: November 27, 2008

Gerris Wilkinson Name: Gerris Wilkinson
#59
Position: LB
Age: 25
Experience: 3 years
College: Georgia Tech
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